Where the numbers come from. Participation and college odds are the NCAA's, using 2022–23 federation and NCAA counts.1 Costs anchor on the Aspen Institute's 2024 parent survey.2 Rowing, gymnastics and skiing are missing because the NCAA leaves them out.
How the model works. It estimates how practice turns into skill, how too much volume leads to burnout and injury, and how pressure drives kids away. The research supports those directions, but the exact weights are mine.
These odds are averages across all high school athletes. They don't predict any one child's outcome.
What this is. The same decade from the other side of the invoice. Court rates sit inside the $35–$70 an hour that school districts commonly charge for a gym. There's no salary line, so what the club clears is the director's pay. The club ledger calculator puts a director and office at $60,000 a year for eight teams. How families respond is modeled, and the coefficients are mine.
Why clubs charge about the same. If a club charges less than about 70% of the regional average, parents assume lower quality and look elsewhere. More than about 15% above it, families can't afford it. So club prices cluster together.
A club tournament weekend. Entry fees are usually under half of what an operator takes in. Gate, concessions and the hotel rebate come from the same families after they paid to enter. Section 1.3 of Better Youth Sports shows that banning one fee just leads operators to raise the others.
What's modeled. Venue, court, officiating and staffing costs use typical market rates. Work teams (in volleyball, players line-judging the match after their own) are why a family can spend thirteen hours at a venue. How teams respond to price is mine.